Auckland Economic Monitor

Auckland’s regional GDP was $160 billion in the year to March 2024 – an increase of 2.1 per cent from the previous year, outpacing the growth experienced by the rest of the country. However, provisional GDP estimates for the year to March 2025 (-1.3%) and the current geopolitical environment paint a somewhat less optimistic picture in the shorter term.

Despite the recent recessionary economic environment, many indicators have improved since a year ago, and there is some room for optimism through the rest of 2025 and into 2026 – the cost of living has come down, with inflation back within the RBNZ target range (1-3%), and improved housing affordability due to lower interest rates. Consumer confidence was up in the second half of 2024 but has fallen again slightly in early 2025. Business confidence has increased in three consecutive quarters and was at its highest level since 2014 in March 2025. Our visitor economy also continues its strong post—pandemic recovery.

At the same time, the impending threat of an international trade war has led to more uncertainty around near-term global economic growth – growth projections for Auckland and New Zealand are still on the positive side but have been revised down due to the potential impact on exports, private investment and consumer spending. Auckland also has lagging productivity growth – an ongoing issue – but remains New Zealand’s most productive region. It is also home to the country’s most productive economic area, Auckland’s city centre, which enjoys a 40 per cent productivity premium over the rest of the country.

As we noted in last year’s report, it is important to acknowledge these challenges. At the same time, Auckland’s economy has proven to be resilient through the COVID-19 period, as well as post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

Auckland is set to keep growing – the region is projected to account for 37 per cent of New Zealand’s total population by 2048, and 40 per cent of the working age population. Following the pandemic, population growth has reached historically high levels, driven largely by international migration. Furthermore, our Māori and Pacific rangatahi (youth) will play an increasingly important role in shaping Auckland’s economic future, reflecting the culture, people and values of whanaungatanga (kinship), manaakitanga (hospitality) and kaitiakitanga (guardianship).